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This article is a submission by PNWER contributor, Jan Greylorn, and does not necessarily reflect the views of PNWER. This a submission to the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center Applied History Project https://www.belfercenter.org/project/applied-history-project#!contest:-applying-history-to-covid-19 In November, we will have an election.
Covid-19 will be an issue. We may be in a harsh "second wave" as happened with the 1918 Influenza. We may see Covid-19 decline and the glimmer of a vaccine. Regardless, the economy will be different. Change will accelerate. Each candidate will have to deal with our experience, real costs (lives and treasure), problematic preparation and execution, and the risks of the "next one". A candidate may choose to ignore the painful experience. To a certain extent, we did that after 1918I[i]. Or they may release thick position papers and promise to do better with what we have. Or a candidate may understand his base and look to Applied History for real measures that will resonate with voters and do the necessary hard things. Covid-19 is the most serious attack on the United States in our collective lifetimes. To date, the virus has killed 100,000+ of our citizens and cost over $4,000,000,000,000 (4 trillion dollars). More death and economic damage will certainly follow. The US Covid-19 response was fragmented, leading to a shutdown which led to an economic crisis and the worst unemployment since the 1929 depression. Social unrest is already evident. Political and national security upheavals may follow. We now know the very real Pandemic risks and consequences. We were warned[ii]. In 2015[iii]Bill Gates laid out four things we need to meet the threat of pandemics: surveillance & data, personnel, treatments, and equipment. He said the failure to prepare would lead to increased death and cost. He was right. Gates urged the development of a medical reserve corps, joint medical and military efforts, germ-focused war games, and stepped-up medical research. Covid-19 is what he called the “next one” after the well-studied 1918 Influenza pandemic. The one after Covid-19 could be even worse. Globalization and mass air travel have turned weeks or months of warning into days Applied historical analysis[iv] tells us that we will need a unified response, an integrated system of planning, preparation, and execution. In 1946, memories of the Nazi blitz, Pearl Harbor, Hiroshima, and the frightening power of massive aerial attacks were the basis for the creation of the Strategic Air Command (SAC)[v]. SAC’s mission was to deter and counter threats with effective reconnaissance, intelligence, planning, resources, and operations. SAC had money, people, material resources, R&D, plans, coordination, and war game verification. SAC also had a SIOP, a Single, Integrated Operations Plan[vi]. We need something similar now – a Strategic Pandemic Command (SPC) with a single, integrated operations plan for Pandemics (PSIOP). Its mission would be to defend the country against biological threats and to plan for post-threat recovery. SPC would monitor all points of entry for biological threats. SPC would protect key interior assets like the health care system, economic nodes, senior citizen life care facilities, and supply chains. It would muster necessary resources including dedicated operational bases, communications equipment, and strategic stockpiles for its partners in city, county, state, and regional jurisdictions. It would refresh and update strategic stockpiles as they age. It would use and support US vendors with periodic purchasing through the domestic supply chain, monitor how that chain integrates globally. and test the chain’s capacity to meet surges. The SPC would use global reconnaissance to detect threats. International cooperation would be important. A “trust but verify” process would include the support of nations and international entities with converging interests. The SPC would coordinate research and development for threat detection, defense, mitigation, treatment, and other needs. It would also conduct its own research and supply grants to other organizations, including foreign allies. The SPC would coordinate with both public and private entities across the health and education sectors. It would provide those entities with federal resources and templates for action. Finally, the SPC would use war games to test operational responsiveness under normal, partial, and full-scale deployments of its resources. It could also use standard events, like the annual flu season, to test its responsiveness. Lessons learned from these simulations would strengthen SPC’s preparedness and pave the way for effective post-threat recovery. The Strategic Air Command’s SIOP was both detailed and flexible. Roles and responsibilities were clear. It evolved and changed over time as threats and capabilities mutated. The Strategic Pandemic Command and its PSIOP should have all that and more. The next pandemic, natural or man made, could be far, far worse. No plan is perfect, but a plan and an effective planning process and execution beat hope and luck. We can and must do better. A Strategic Pandemic Command with an integrated plan modeled on SAC which protected us for a half century is a path to a better way. Mr. Jan Greylorn BA Biomedical History, UW BA History, Military History UW 20+ years Corporate Planning and Operations Research (Eddie Bauer, Nordstrom, T Mobile, Washington State, Cities, Counties, Military Associations ….) Click here for source and resource material Applied History Applied Historians begin with a current choice or predicament and analyze the historical record to provide perspective, stimulate imagination, find clues about what is likely to happen, suggest possible interventions, and assess probable consequences. https://www.belfercenter.org/project/applied-history-project#!about In the author’s humble opinion, Applied History
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This article is a submission by PNWER sponsor, University of Washington, and does not necessarily reflect the views of PNWER.  When the University of Washington launched the Population Health Initiative nearly four years ago, it was necessary to explain the importance of studying the intersecting and overlapping factors that influence health and well-being both here and around the world. The Initiative’s cross-disciplinary approach to problem-solving was unusual in a university setting, encouraging researchers to collaborate on projects across traditional departmental boundaries. Today, the relevance of this work could not be more obvious.
The COVID-19 pandemic has shined a spotlight on how profoundly important scientific expertise and data are for helping policymakers, business leaders and citizens understand both the scale of the pandemic and the response necessary to address it. From developing treatments and caring for patients to researching the virus and combating misinformation, UW faculty, staff and students are playing an integral role in the global response to COVID-19. Outstanding work is happening across our university to attack the problem from every angle. Our medical system staff are on the front lines providing extraordinary care to our community. UW researchers have sequenced COVID-19’s genome, identified the architecture and mechanisms of COVID-19, created a new laboratory test to expedite diagnostics, are testing potential treatments, built models to forecast the outbreak’s severity, and are crowd-sourcing a cure. Others are working to slow the viral spread of misinformation about COVID-19, 3D print face shields for hospital staff, locate and donate personal protective equipment, help monitor and understand the emotional impacts of self-isolation and provide resources to families whose kids are suddenly home 24/7. Public health experts are consulting with local governments and businesses about how to safely reopen when the time comes. Faculty and students are showing boundless creativity and compassion as they transition to online learning. Virology researchers are developing and processing antibody tests, computer science experts are developing a contact-tracing app. And the list goes on. The University of Washington and UW Medicine are proud to serve our community and State as we take on COVID-19. This work would not be possible without support from the state of Washington, the federal government and the private contributions of so many generous individuals. It is important to note that by its very definition, population health reminds us that the efforts of UW Medicine and the University of Washington are not in isolation – our work is interconnected with the herculean efforts of leaders in every sector of our economy and community. Daily, we are seeing the bravery of frontline essential workers, the tireless advocacy of community leaders and the sacrifice of those who are keeping their businesses closed and staying home. Thank you for all that you are doing personally and professionally to continue to reduce the spread and burden of COVID-19. In our region, the curve may be flattening, but we are still a long way from the finish line. From improving testing availability and contact tracing capacity, continued therapeutic and vaccine research, and understanding the safest and most equitable ways to reopen the economy, there is still much more work to be done to beat this disease. The University of Washington will continue to serve the community and State as we weather COVID-19 and beyond. By standing together – while physically apart – our communities will defeat this virus and recover from its devastating effects.
After the devastating flood of 1948 near the City of Vanport, the U.S. and Canada partnered to create the Columbia River Treaty (CRT). This Treaty is a joint agreement concerning the development, regulation, and management of the Columbia River to coordinate flood control and maximize hydropower energy production. The Columbia River Treaty has a minimum length of 60 years that will be met on September 16, 2024, with no specified expiration date. With ten year’s notice, the U.S., Canada, or both may decide to terminate the Treaty. If neither country gives notice of termination, the countries may decide to renegotiate or consider improvements by mutual agreement at any time during the life of the CRT. With no termination, the Treaty will continue indefinitely, except for the Annual Assured Flood Control which expires in 2024. When enacted, the U.S. paid $64.4 million for the operation of the Assured Annual Flood Control through 2024 to be replaced by Called Upon Flood Control to be paid per call.  Map of dams in the Columbia Basin - Photo Source: BC.gov What happens after 2024?The Treaty continues indefinitely; however, in 2024, the coordinated flood risk management provision changes to a less-defined approach. In 2024, the Assured Annual Flood Control will be replaced with Called Upon Flood Control. This on-call use of Canada’s reservoirs can only be utilized once the U.S. has made effective use of their own reservoir storage, and Canada must be compensated for the operational and economic cost of each flood control call. Currently, under the Treaty, U.S. and Canadian entities coordinate to maintain and adjust reservoir levels as needed and to maximize the power generated. Under the Columbia River Treaty, the U.S. pre-paid Canada for Assured Annual Flood Control until 2024, which denotes that Canada will reserve 8.45 million acre-feet of assured annual water draft at all three of their CRT reservoirs. Under Called Upon Flood Control, Canada is not required to reserve any water draft. The U.S. and Canada have different perspectives on how the called upon operation for coordinated flood risk management should be implemented after 2024. According to the U.S., the flood control can be called upon once river flows exceed 450,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) measured at The Dalles Dam and only eight storage reservoirs in the U.S. need to be effectively used before the U.S. can call Canada for flood control. From the Canadian perspective, the U.S. can request on call flood control once The Dalles dam exceeds 600,000 cfs and has effectively used all possible storage in the Basin. This ambiguous interpretation of the Called Upon Flood Control will cause implications for quick and efficient flood control. What happens if the treaty is terminated?
NegotiationsNegotiations for the Columbia River Treaty began in May of 2018. Since then seven more meetings have taken place with the most recent being in September of 2019. Researched and written by Miranda Harris Hamlin, PNWER Policy Intern. Miranda is currently a senior at Seattle University studying Economics. Resources
Download our Columbia River Treaty 4-pager 
PNWER kicked off the decade with visits to several of our jurisdictions' capitals last month. PNWER traveled to Olympia, WA, first before heading to Juneau, AK, and Boise, ID. PNWER will visit the capitals of our other jurisdictions, Ottawa, and Washington, D.C. in the coming months. These annual capital visits allow PNWER delegates and stakeholders to meet with key government, legislative, and private sector leaders to discuss issues important to our region.
PNWER in Olympia
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 Ambassador David MacNaughton at the 2019 NGA Annual Meeting |  Washington Governor Jay Inslee at the 2019 NGA Annual Meeting |
The USMCA and tariff discussion will be a featured issue during the 2019 PNWER Annual Summit in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, this July 21-25. Hear from policy experts, legislators, and others during keynotes, panels, and sessions that highlight this important cross-border issue. Join us in Saskatoon in July. More details HERE
Congressional Outreach for USMCA & Tariffs
Representative Earl Blumenauer (OR) and Representative Richard Neal (MA), Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee PNWER prepared and delivered letters to all of the region’s congressional delegation strongly urging them to ratify USMCA and to encourage the Trump administration to remove the steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico. These letters reiterated the importance of free, fair, and open trade for the mutual benefit of the three economies. They also mentioned the resolutions that are being introduced in the five Northwest state legislatures calling for the same. Resolutions from the Northwest states are being considered in the legislatures in the coming weeks.
Two of the key congressmen for the USMCA ratification process are in our region. They are Idaho Senator Mike Crapo, who serves as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, and Oregon Representative Earl Blumenauer, Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee’s Subcommittee on Trade. Both have an important role in trade policy for Congress.
PNWER met with key staff in Senator Crapo’s office to discuss the importance of USMCA ratification and the repeal of Section 232 tariffs. Senator Crapo’s staff expressed interest in establishing an ongoing relationship with PNWER. He would like to be kept apprised of the state joint resolutions mentioned above and also any data on impacts in the Pacific Northwest of tariffs, whether from Canada and Mexico or from China.
Oregon Representative Earl Blumenauer's office also met with PNWER to speak about USMCA ratification and Section 232 tariffs. It was a wonderful opportunity for PNWER to provide input to the congressional staff on the Pacific Northwest's regional concerns with the continued instability on North American trade. PNWER is looking forward to working with the Representative's office as USMCA ratification comes up in the coming weeks.
Two of the key congressmen for the USMCA ratification process are in our region. They are Idaho Senator Mike Crapo, who serves as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, and Oregon Representative Earl Blumenauer, Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee’s Subcommittee on Trade. Both have an important role in trade policy for Congress.
PNWER met with key staff in Senator Crapo’s office to discuss the importance of USMCA ratification and the repeal of Section 232 tariffs. Senator Crapo’s staff expressed interest in establishing an ongoing relationship with PNWER. He would like to be kept apprised of the state joint resolutions mentioned above and also any data on impacts in the Pacific Northwest of tariffs, whether from Canada and Mexico or from China.
Oregon Representative Earl Blumenauer's office also met with PNWER to speak about USMCA ratification and Section 232 tariffs. It was a wonderful opportunity for PNWER to provide input to the congressional staff on the Pacific Northwest's regional concerns with the continued instability on North American trade. PNWER is looking forward to working with the Representative's office as USMCA ratification comes up in the coming weeks.
Advocacy for Aquatic Invasive Species (AIS) prevention: Invasive Mussel Funding
Continuing PNWER’s ongoing work on the issue of invasive species, Matt met with PNWER's regional Congressional delegation’s Appropriations committee members to ensure the continued appropriation of federal matching funds to the four Northwest states (ID, MT, OR, and WA) for watercraft inspection stations and monitoring to combat invasive mussels. PNWER has helped to bring $21 million of federal funds to the region since 2015 for invasive mussel prevention in the Columbia River Basin. This year, reauthorization language has expanded to allow for funding in three new river basins and up to a dozen more states. Matt advocated on the behalf of the PNWER region to ensure that the same level of funding would continue for the four Northwest states, and not be diluted by the addition of the new river basins.
For the upcoming year, PNWER submitted requests to each of the House and Senate appropriators in the region for the continued appropriation of $6 million to the four Northwest states. Meetings with Congressional appropriators included staff from the following offices:
The issue of invasive mussels is a key topic for PNWER's Invasive Species Working Group. The Invasive Species Working Group will be holding a session at the Annual Summit to discuss this and other topics that are vital to the protection of the region's waterways and industry.
For the upcoming year, PNWER submitted requests to each of the House and Senate appropriators in the region for the continued appropriation of $6 million to the four Northwest states. Meetings with Congressional appropriators included staff from the following offices:
- Senator Steve Daines, MT
- Representative Jaime Herrera-Beutler, WA
- Representative Derek Kilmer, WA
- Senator Patty Murray, WA
- Representative Dan Newhouse, WA
- Representative Mike Simpson, ID
The issue of invasive mussels is a key topic for PNWER's Invasive Species Working Group. The Invasive Species Working Group will be holding a session at the Annual Summit to discuss this and other topics that are vital to the protection of the region's waterways and industry.
Agency Meetings with Western
Governors Association
The Western Governors Association (WGA)) invited Matt Morrison on behalf of PNWER to participate in a series of meetings with administration officials while he was in Washington, D.C. He attended the following meetings with the WGA.
U.S. Department of the Interior: The WGA and PNWER met with officials from the U.S. Department of the Interior to discuss mandatory watercraft inspections for invasive mussels in Lake Mead and Lake Havasu in Arizona. Matt explained that under the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) the Army Corps of Engineers program has been expanded to four more river basins.
U.S. Department of Energy: At the Department of Energy, a number of issues were discussed including Western energy corridors as well as fossil fuels and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Matt also briefed the DOE on PNWER's Legislative Energy Horizon Institute (LEHI) program, which DOE has funded since 2009.
U.S. Department of Transportation: The WGA and PNWER met with Finch Fulton, the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Transportation Policy. He has a particular interest in Autonomous, Connected, Electric, and Shared (ACES) vehicles which will be a key topic at PNWER’s Economic Leadership Forum in Seattle in November. Mr. Fulton was also interested in PNWER’s engagement in Section 1441 of the Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST Act as the DOT is working on reauthorization of the act for 2020.
Lastly, Matt and key members of the WGA staff met with the Legislative Director for Senator Chuck Schumer as well as 3 additional staff during which they spoke about how to improve the relationship of the federal government to the state governments.
U.S. Department of the Interior: The WGA and PNWER met with officials from the U.S. Department of the Interior to discuss mandatory watercraft inspections for invasive mussels in Lake Mead and Lake Havasu in Arizona. Matt explained that under the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) the Army Corps of Engineers program has been expanded to four more river basins.
U.S. Department of Energy: At the Department of Energy, a number of issues were discussed including Western energy corridors as well as fossil fuels and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Matt also briefed the DOE on PNWER's Legislative Energy Horizon Institute (LEHI) program, which DOE has funded since 2009.
U.S. Department of Transportation: The WGA and PNWER met with Finch Fulton, the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Transportation Policy. He has a particular interest in Autonomous, Connected, Electric, and Shared (ACES) vehicles which will be a key topic at PNWER’s Economic Leadership Forum in Seattle in November. Mr. Fulton was also interested in PNWER’s engagement in Section 1441 of the Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST Act as the DOT is working on reauthorization of the act for 2020.
Lastly, Matt and key members of the WGA staff met with the Legislative Director for Senator Chuck Schumer as well as 3 additional staff during which they spoke about how to improve the relationship of the federal government to the state governments.
Looking Forward
PNWER is committed to continuing federal advocacy for the region on these key issues and many more. Currently, PNWER is focusing particularly on the ratification of USMCA and the removal of Section 232 tariffs and retaliatory tariffs. To see PNWER's work on this issue, visit our NAFTA Modernization/USMCA Ratification page.
