An 'agreement in principle' could not be reached at the Summit of the Americas earlier this month, but Vice President Pence and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who attended in place of President Trump, are hopeful about reaching a preliminary deal by the third week of May.

All parties seem eager to meet this deadline as US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer meets with his Canadian and Mexican counter parts on Tuesday (4/24) in Washington DC. High ranking officials met Friday (4/20) and will continue through the weekend in preparation for the trilateral meeting. The 7th of 30 eventual chapters in the NAFTA agreement has just been completed.

The origin rules for auto parts remains a major sticking point in negotiations. This rule governs the percentage of vehicle content that must be made in NAFTA countries. Originally, the Trump administration wanted to raise that requirement from 62.5% to 85% and increase the amount built in the US but has 'significantly softened' their position. 

Former Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierezz offered his predictions on an eventual NAFTA deal, saying that number will end up at 70%-75% for regional rules of origin (auto content coming from any of the three NAFTA nations rather than from US only). In addition, the proposed sunset provision requiring NAFTA renegotiation every five years will likely be changed to a recurring check-in.

Other negotiation speed bumps include government procurement, investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS), and dairy products. 

Meanwhile, elections that could be consequential for NAFTA  are quickly approaching; Mexico elects a new president on July 1, and US Midterm elections on November 6 could elect a Congress that makes NAFTA renegotiation difficult. 

Under the Trade Promotion Authority the White House must give Congress 90 days notice of its decision to sign the new agreement. 60 days before signing, a legal text of the agreement must be released (if anti-dumping and countervailing duty measures are changed by the deal, 180 days notice would be required instead). 

Other NAFTA and Trade news:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/phillevy/2018/04/17/is-there-still-time-for-a-nafta-deal/#1dd7ae8f3122

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/20/lighthizer-nafta-trump-trade-congress-539248

​​Contributions by Zack Tarhouni, PNWER Intern

The next round of NAFTA talks has been delayed to allow for a series of high level meetings in DC on Friday April 6th,  (Next round of NAFTA talks on hold as ministers meet in Washington)  between US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland, and Mexico's Secretary of Economy Ildefonso Guajardo Billarreal. The 8th Round is expected to begin next week, from April 8-18, although it has not been formalized yet. In addition, the leaders of Canada, Mexico, and the US will meet at the Summit of the America's April 13th-14th, where there is a possibility of signing an agreement in principle on NAFTA. 

Since the last round of talks in March, the Trump administration has pulled back on some of its contentious auto-manufacturing requirements, but a number of serious questions remain, including carve-outs on steel and aluminum tariffs for Mexico and Canada, which expire on May 1st  (U.S. sets May 1 tariff threat on Canada, Mexico amid rush to speed up NAFTA talks) and the proposed "sunset clause" requiring NAFTA renegotiation every 5 years.  The US tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico received temporary exemptions after stakeholders expressed concern over impacts. PNWER issued a statement on the proposed tariffs on March 7th  PNWER Letter to President Donald J. Trump - March 7, 2018   Also nearly 130 republican congressional leaders, led by Rep. Dave Reichert (WA) signed a letter opposing the tariffs  

Nearly 100 Congressional Republicans sent a letter to the USTR to push to maintain the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) in NAFTA,  in response Ambassador  Lighthizer's statements on his preference to do away with the ISDS process before the House Ways and Means Committee. 

In Idaho, bi-partisan state legislative leaders have expressed their concern over the potential impact of withdrawal from NAFTA on the state. Minority Leader Rep. Erpelding and Senate Commerce & Human Resources Committee chair Sen. Jim Patrick co-authored an editorial outlining their concerns: NAFTA has been a game-changer for Idaho. Don’t damage Idaho agriculture, tech companies

Finally, here's a new tool developed by the US Chamber showing economic data by state related to NAFTA trade with Canada and Mexico: https://www.naeconomicalliance.com/nafta-and-you-interactive-map/  According to the tool, across WA, OR, ID, and MT there are 585,000 jobs supported by NAFTA  and $13,218,868,498 in NAFTA supported exports.

Other NAFTA and Trade news: 

Senate Ag chairman says trade disputes “not a good situation”

As Trump Threatens NAFTA (Again), States With the Most on the Line Ahead of Trade Talks

These deadlines explain why Trump's hurrying to get a Nafta deal

Alberta signs letter to U.S. President Donald Trump opposing steel tariffs

Any NAFTA deal in principle would focus on auto rules

In Nafta Shift, U.S. Focuses on Labor Standards

​Contributions by Zack Tarhouni, PNWER Intern