NAFTA Update: May 18, 2018

House Speaker Paul Ryan's May 17th deadline has come and gone without a new deal on NAFTA. This was originally the deadline for the Trump administration to submit a trade deal in order to have it voted on by the current congress before the end of the session.. This makes a NAFTA deal in 2019 now more likely than ever. 

However, Canada and Mexico are not deterred by Ryan's deadline and remain optimistic about reaching a deal soon. Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo has said a deal in late May or early June is still possible (Mexico elects a new president on July 1st). 

In addition, on Thursday Ryan extended his deadline, saying that a deal produced in the next week or two could still be voted on by this congress. That would only be possible if the International Trade Commission can finish their review of the deal in less than the allotted 105 days after signing. 

Issues that still need to be solved: Auto manufacturing rules of origin, steel and aluminum tariffs, the dispute resolution mechanism, the sunset clause, seasonality tariffs, textiles, dairy market access, de minimis and ecommerce rules. 

If the parties cannot agree on a deal before these deadlines, an agreement in principle that would calm markets and lay a groundwork for next year is more likely.

In late April PNWER issued a revised statement calling for a continued exemption of steel and aluminum tariffs from Canada which was extended another month. PNWER also issued a statement opposing tariffs on newsprint from Canada. 

In Other NAFTA News:
Saskatchewan Premier Moe says NAFTA needs an update not a rewrite following first U.S. summit - Global News

Christopher Sands on The Risks of Missing the May Deadline for NAFTA 2.0 - CSIS 

A new NAFTA will probably not get done this year. Now what? - POLITICO

Trump’s Goal for Nafta Rewrite Looks Unattainable in 2018 - The Wall Street Journal

Time is running out on NAFTA, as U.S. grapples with China over trade - CBS News

Kudlow Says Nafta Deal Is Test of Trump Trade Cooperation - Bloomberg

​Contributions by Zack Tarhouni, PNWER Intern